Spring officially begins at 4:01 a.m. on Thursday, March 20. This specific time is known as the spring equinox and marks the moment when the sun crosses the equator from north to south. In the northern hemisphere, spring begins. However, in the southern hemisphere, this marks the start of autumn.

Oncor works diligently to prepare our equipment and facilities for spring weather, such as wind and severe thunderstorms. We also closely monitor both short-term and seasonal weather and forecast data.

Oncor uses an in-house meteorologist and a third-party weather monitoring service year-round, allowing us to remain prepared to respond to potential weather impacts that may threaten our service area.

Seasonal outlooks for temperature and precipitation are provided by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center (CPC). These outlooks, or forecasts, are based on numerous factors. One of the most important is the presence of El Niño or La Niña. This is often referred to as ENSO, or the El Niño/Southern Oscillation. These are climate patterns that can affect large-scale weather patterns over North America.

According to an update from the CPC in February, La Niña is currently in place and there is a 66% chance that ENSO-neutral conditions will develop by May 2025.

ENSO-neutral conditions mean there will be no direct influence from El Niño or La Niña.

In terms of seasonal outlooks, this means influences on weather patterns will likely come as a result of other sources, including seasonal norms for a given area.

It’s important to note that seasonal forecasts consider the weather over three months. Certain days out of those three months may vary from what the overall seasonal forecast calls for.

Spring Precipitation Outlook

Across Oncor’s service area, there’s a 33-50% chance that precipitation will be lower than average this spring. In other words, things are trending dry.

What is considered average? That varies slightly by location. Below is the average spring precipitation for several locations in Oncor’s service area. 

For example, DFW has a 33-40% chance to see less than 3.22 inches of rain in April. The Midland area has a 40-50% chance to see less than 1.57 inches of rain in May.

Spring Temperature Outlook

Much of Texas has a 50-60% chance to see warmer than average weather this spring, though North Texas has a 40-50% chance.

Just like with precipitation, what’s considered average does vary across different regions of the state. Below are average spring temperatures for the same locations in Oncor’s service area.

Severe Weather

It’s very difficult to forecast severe weather beyond a few days, so there is no formal seasonal outlook.

Historically, however, spring is an active time for severe weather across the southern U.S. This is often due to cold fronts colliding with warm, humid air as temperatures increase.  

Before severe weather threatens, one way to make sure your household is prepared is by building and checking your storm safety kit. Click here for helpful information.

Wildfires

Wildfire danger, like severe weather, can be difficult to forecast beyond several days. However, seasonal drought forecasts are available and can be used to determine whether dry conditions may increase the overall fire danger.

The CPC’s drought outlook for the spring suggests existing drought will persist and new drought will develop across Texas. As a result, it is likely that dry vegetation will aid in elevated fire danger at times this spring.

Note: daily fire danger levels are also influenced by relative humidity levels and wind speeds. 

Click here to learn more about how to help prevent wildfires during high-risk conditions.

Final Thoughts

As mentioned earlier, seasonal forecasts are meant to be used as a guide for overall weather over three months. There will be days this spring that are chilly, even though the seasonal forecast calls for a warmer overall spring.

The same idea goes for precipitation.

While it is impossible to know if or when severe weather will affect the state and Oncor’s service area, our customers can rest assured Oncor is always ready to respond to weather impacts.

We encourage our customers to monitor their local forecasts and take steps to prepare their homes and families for spring storm season.

This information is provided by Oncor’s in-house meteorologist, Kaiti Blake. Kaiti is an AMS certified broadcast meteorologist with more than 9 years of forecast & broadcast experience.