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See the First 2023 Hurricane Season Forecast

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Kaiti Blake
05.03.2023

Believe it or not, another hurricane season is right around the corner. Hurricane season begins on June 1 and lasts through Nov. 30.

 

In advance of the upcoming season, the first week of May is Hurricane Preparedness Week.

 

So, what’s in store this year? According to Colorado State University’s seasonal forecast that was issued in April, tropical cyclone activity is expected to be slightly below-average this year.

 

 

NOAA also issues a seasonal forecast each year. However, as of early May, their outlook for this season hadn’t been released yet.

 

It’s important to keep in mind that these seasonal forecasts apply to the whole Atlantic basin. That includes the Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico. So, for example, the roughly 13 named storms expected by Colorado State this season won’t all affect the U.S. coast line.

 

Tropical Tip: Historically, the busiest part of hurricane season is mid-August to mid-October.

 

Two main factors in making a forecast for hurricane season are El Nino/La Nina and sea surface temperatures.

 

Warmer water favors tropical cyclone development. So, sea surface temperatures already above normal across the Atlantic would suggest a busier season. However, the development of El Nino later this year is expected to limit tropical cyclone activity. This is due to more wind shear over the Atlantic when El Nino is in play. Wind shear inhibits tropical cyclone development.

 

Typical El Nino Weather Pattern Effect on Tropical Weather

 

Oncor does not have any facilities located within a hurricane evacuation zone (as defined by the Texas Division of Emergency Management). However, Oncor has a proud history of supporting neighboring utility partners through mutual assistance partnerships. Through these partnerships, Oncor is able to assist in relief efforts across the country during hurricane season. Just last September, Oncor sent 500 mutual assistance personnel to Florida to help with recovery after Hurricane Ian made landfall on southwest Florida.

 

Oncor encourages all customers with property or interests in hurricane evacuation zones to monitor tropical weather forecasts throughout hurricane season.

 

Tropical Tip: Tropical cyclones have different names across different parts of the world. Hurricanes occur over the eastern Pacific Ocean, the Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean Sea, and the Gulf of Mexico. Typhoons occur over the western Pacific Ocean and cyclones over the Indian Ocean.