While it might seem like pumpkin spice season just got started, winter is already here. The winter solstice occurred  in the afternoon of Wednesday, Dec. 21, marking the start of a new season.

So, what does winter have in store for Texas where the weather is concerned?

Winter Outlook

As with all seasonal outlooks, we can infer a lot about the overall weather pattern by looking to La Nina & El Nino. For the third straight year, La Nina will be steering our weather this winter.

La Nina and El Nino are climate patterns that begin over the Pacific Ocean but affect North America and other parts of the globe. La Nina results in an area of high pressure over the Pacific Ocean, which displaces the polar jet stream farther north. This keeps areas of low pressure – or storm systems – across the central and northern tier of the U.S. As a result, Texas generally experiences fewer storm systems. That tends to leave things drier and warmer, overall.

Specifically, Texas can expect temperatures to be above normal and precipitation to be below normal this winter. However, it’s important to keep in mind that that’s over a three-month period. There will be points within those three months that the weather is colder and wetter. A perfect example of this is the cold snap Texas experienced just before Christmas this year.

According to NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, La Nina is expected to continue through early 2023. There is about a 70% chance that La Nina will weaken and loosen its grip on our weather pattern by spring of 2023. Stay tuned!